>> we have the star jones on twitter. >> star jones, yes. >> i love you like a brother, willie geist, and i'm up way too early watching. so don't be mean to my yankees. i know people. >> thank you, star jones. i love you like a sister, but what else can we be other than the new york yankees? it's not the umpire's fault. nobody's hitting. historically bad. one more. you guys are very excited. you're very excited about easy "e" we played in our last break. i think that's right. we have one tweet. my tv turns on automatically when he hears easy "e" before 6:00 a.m. it's science. keeping your attention is what he's going to do. "morning joe" starts right now.

the real stephen is actually pleased as a performer that mitt romney got his [ bleep ] in a pile because i model conservative punditry. if he's not someone i can follow, then i'm lost. and i have to say, up until wednesday night, i just thought i don't know what i'm going to do for the next month. >> because why? >> he was just a walking shambling mound of weakness, you know? even the people who liked him didn't seem to be behind him that strongly. people were, you know, stepping out of his boat. you know, they're all saying hey! that's the guy! i'll be right there! no, i'm just trying the life jacket on right now! do i have to self-inflate, or do i pull the cord? >> and that all changed? >> no, now he's the man. now he's got these long, luscious coattails, and everybody's jumping on board. >> good morning, it's monday, october 15th. a new week. a new chance for this race to

take another turn. you're looking at a live shot early in the morning of new york city and a beautiful day. with us in new york, msnbc contributor mike barnicle. we have the national affairs editor for "new york" magazine and msnbc political analyst john heilemann. also the vice president and executive editor of the new msnbc.com and msnbc political analyst richard wolffe. in chicago, we've got msnbc and "time" senior political analyst, mark halperin. he's going to talk about a little dust-up over the moderator of the debate this week. and in washington, the washington anchor for bbc world news america, katty kay. so much to talk about. but let's start by talking about this critical week that's ahead in the presidential elections. the candidates are going to be getting together for two more debates within a week. and you know, you've just got to know, the face of this race is going to change again. a new poll out of likely voters sets the stage.

and this is by "the washington post" and abc news. and it puts the race within the margin of error in this national poll. you've got president obama at 49%. mitt romney's at 46%. and the poll finds a majority of americans now approve of the way that the president's handling his job. over 51% while 42% believe the country's heading in the right direction, up from 13% two weeks ago. however, when they're asked about the candidates and whether their opinion of the candidates changed after the first debate, 19% say they view the president more negatively. 37% say they have a better view of mitt romney. there's also a new politico/george washington university poll out of ten battleground states including ohio, florida and virginia which shows mitt romney ahead in the swing states 50%-48%. that's a statistical tie. there's also a new public policy poll of likely voters in the state that may matter the most this year, ohio, that actually

has the president up by 5 percentage points. a lot to digest here. let's start, though, with john heilemann. john, it certainly looks like it's still a jump ball as we go through the second debate. mitt romney and barack obama really neck and neck whether you're looking at the national polls or the battleground state polls. >> yeah, that's right. there's no question about it, joe. and you can see that the -- as we've gotten a little bit further away from that first debate where president obama performed so poorly, you can see that the lingering effects of it have been a little less than we might have thought before. there's no question mitt romney helped himself a little bit in terms of his likability, in terms of conservative and republican enthusiasm. the race in terms of the national numbers with back to being, as you said, joe, a jump ball. i keep looking at that ohio number at the end. when you think about the closer we get to election day, the more we have to think about what are the paths to 270 electoral votes. that ohio number at five is still a big problem for romney if he's going to try to get all the way there.

>> richard wolffe, the bottom line is if mitt romney cannot win ohio, and at this point you've got early voting going in, absentee voting going in, that's happening in 43 states. but if you're romney, you're most concerned about ohio because if you're down by five percentage points in a poll, some say it's two, some say it's three, but if we are sitting at 4% or 5%, that's happening while early voting's going on. mitt romney -- bottom line is if he doesn't win ohio, he can still be elected president of the united states, but he's got to run the table. he's got to win florida. he's got to win north carolina. he's got to win virginia. he's got to win iowa. he's got to win colorado. he's got to win nevada. he's got to win them all. >> and it's a republican-leaning battleground state. you know, ohio gives me flashback to my favorite comparison for this election which is 2004. this point in 2004, october 10th, actually after the second presidential debate in 2004, john kerry had a lead. effectively the race was tied, but he had a lead among likely

voters of one point. that was after two dedabatedeba it came down to ohio. it is an extremely close race, well within the margin of error. for the president's supporters and maybe his critics who thought that he was in freefall after that first debate, these latest round of poll numbers suggest that that isn't the case. >> actually, it seems, mike, that if you look historically over the past couple of weeks, you look at the first debate, you look at the vice presidential debate, it seems like it kept mitt romney in the game. we were all talking about before, if mitt romney doesn't do very well in the first debate, the race is over. and so i guess any romney person looking at these polls saying well, geez, we're still behind by a couple of points in the national polls, they can thank their lucky stars that romney turned in a great debate. the president turned in a poor debate, or else they're looking like the new york yankees, 2-0 down going to detroit! sorry, willie. bad analogy. i'm sorry. >> that's not good. >> that's awful. >> but it's true.

it's not good, but it's true. >> it's actuallyelightful. >> the interesting thing about ohio, i think, to several people i was speaking with this weekend, and i'd like to hear from mark halperin on this who's been out in the field for basically a week with the candidates and with the campaigns, is this the inevitable tightening of the race in ohio and elsewhere at this stage at the campaign season, or did the president do so much damage to himself in that debate that that's resulted in the race being as tight as it is right now? what do you hear, mark? >> well, i spent friday and saturday in ohio with governor romney. go back to sort of the fundamentals we talked about for the last year. the model for the obama campaign is that 2004 bush campaign that richard talked about. and one of the principles there is you have to make the other guy, the challenger, unacceptable. and one of the things -- and this is based on reporting and again a little bit of touch and

feel of being out in the field -- one of the things that struck me about being in ohio this weekend is romney is seeing like an acceptable alternative. his debate performance, the better press coverage, he may be strong enough in ohio and in the other battlegrounds that voters look at him as acceptable and given the state of the economy, that has been the big worry of the obama campaign all along. that's why we've heard so much about bain capital. that's why we've heard so much about his swiss bank account, his personal taxes, et cetera. it's going to be interesting to see if the obama campaign tries to drive some of that personal stuff. and if they don't, and again, if governor romney emerges as acceptable, that may give him enough of a chance to win ohio and enough of those battlegrounds to get just over 270. >> mark, you have some exclusive reporting in "time" magazine about one issue that both candidates and both campaigns seem to agree on. and that is a growing concern with the debate moderator tomorrow night. tell us about it. >> well, it's on time.com now, and it's a complicated issue because you've got these four

entities, the two campaigns, the commission on presidential debates, and then you have the individual moderators. candy crowley who's moderating the town hall on tuesday has got a unique challenge as compared to the other moderators. the commission and the campaigns want this to be driven by the questions that come from the people chosen by gallup to ask questions, citizens who are likely voters. and both campaigns have been struck, as has the commission, by some of the interviews candy has done, talking about her role in what she envisions her role to be. the campaigns envision a much more limited role than they've heard her describe, and things are a bit in flux. it's clear that the complains have asked the commission as i report to check with candy to say, you know, do you get the fact that we think this should be a very limited role? very few follow-ups, basically just traffic top after an audience question. and it remains a little bit unclear at this point about if she envisions this role the way the commission and the campaigns do or whether she wants to play

a more active role in following up after they've answered the question from the citizen. >> mark, will this matter, though, at the end of the day? a week ago we were talking about martha raddatz and the big firestorm around her. everybody forgot that after the debate. same thing with gwen ifil four years ago. will this matter in the end? >> i think, you know, candy's a pro, and i think she understands the goal, which is to try to elucidate as much as possible from the candidates in 90 minutes. i think the real question is, again, how many of those audience questions they get to and how much the campaigns respond. basically from their point of view exclusively to the time being given over to the audience questions rather than to candy's. i think the quality of the audience questions matters a lot. and one of the real key functions candy will have which will be behind the scenes, we won't see it, is calling the questions, rieading the questios by audience members. she's got to choose which ones will be asked and in what order. that's a big assignment. that's a big function. >> katty, just to reset, we have

two debates coming up in the span of a week. we talked about ohio, but for team romney as well, even the state of florida is a margin of error race at this point. virginia, the same. north carolina, probably a little closer than the romneys would like to have it be. if you're mitt romney, if you're that campaign, how are you feeling here about three weeks out? >> you've got to be feeling good that things are moving in your direction and you're the team that seems to have the momentum, but clearly the numbers aren't quite there yet. and if the race was called today and all of us had to, you know, put our savings into which way it was going to go, we'd probably still put it in obama's favor just because of the way ohio's looking and the numbers. i think there's been so much focus on barack obama's debate performance in denver and much less on mitt romney's positive performance. and i think what mark was talking about there about hit romney having made himself acceptable during the course of that debate is a huge part of this story. the obama campaign spent

millions during the course of this year on negative ads to make mitt romney an unacceptable choice. and what he did during the course of 90 minutes was make himself acceptable. and i think that -- that is as much at play in this as obama's weak performance. and although we'll all be watching obama in the debate tomorrow night, i think actually how mitt romney performs is going to be just as significant. and if he carries on with a positive performance again making himself acceptable to american voters, then i think that's critical. and you know, to get back to the 2004 campaign, the issue of that campaign was national security, which that campaign was lost basically in clark county, ohio, or something. the issue of that campaign was national security. and i remember during the course of 2004 thinking, i don't understand what john kerry's position is on iraq. and if i didn't understand who was handling that campaign every single day, how on earth could the american voters understand it? and john kerry somehow on the issue of the 2004 campaign was not acceptable.

his position was incomprehensible. and i think that was a big part of the factor. he lost that campaign. >> and i'll tell you what. you're exactly right about mitt romney's performance. another great performance by mitt romney is going to have a real impact moving forward in the last couple of weeks. on the effort by the obama team to try to make him look unacceptable, like the romney team is trying to make the vice president look unacceptable. you saw -- if you're one of the 88 million people who wake up every morning to watch willie geist's "way too early," you saw "snl's" take on the vice president al's take. 88 million? 89 million? >> it changes on the day, but that's the average. >> i'm, of course, counting streaming and the armed forces radio and everything peelse. >> thank you. >> you saw the funny "snl" skit, their take on the vice presidential debate. team romney is now using the vice president's debate performance in a new ad. they're using it to make a point

on spending and the economy. take a look. >> we can't keep spending and borrowing like this. we can't keep spending money we don't have. did they come in and inherit a tough situation? absolutely. but we're going in the wrong direction. look at where we are. the economy is barely limping along. don't raise taxes on small businesses because they're our job creators. leaders run to problems to fix problems. mitt romney is uniquely qualified to fix these problems. >> i'm mitt romney, and i approved this message. >> mike barnicle, you knew that was going to happen. we, of course, have a no-attack-joe zone because we love the guy so much, but didn't he look a little goofy laughing while the debate was veering from libya to dead u.s. ambassadors to bad economies and always laughing and chuckling? was that a little over the top? >> yeah, sure, it was. sure, it was. you know, in retrospect, i think the vice president would probably say, you know, he

should have behaved a bit better. >> why do you think he did that? because we know joe. and we know the guy's -- you know, he's been in the u.s. senate since he was 29 years old. he's a shrewd politician. he's great in debates. it's almost like he was given marching orders to go in there and do this. i'm just curious, what do you think was going on? >> well, i think a couple of things were going on. i think one, you just referenced. i think the objective that he had was to, you know, go in there and do exactly what he did to, you know, back the dump truck up on paul ryan in terms of things that the president did not mention during the first debate with governor romney. and the second item, i think he was trying to obviously get under congressman ryan's skin, which he didn't succeed in doing, really. he did make congressman ryan nervous a couple of times. he basically went through 406 bottles of water in debating the vice president. >> hold on a second, mike. that's very unfair. you know, if you do this px90

stuff, you've got to hydrate. >> that's true. >> two rules, hydration and moisturize. if you don't do those two things, you can't do px90. of course, you and i will never know about any sort of px90 whatever. i think that's a mountain bike or something like that. heilmann, the vice presidential debate at the end of the day doesn't matter, didn't matter. paul ryan held serve, and you've got biden who energized his base, i think. i mean, it's all going up to this week. is the president quietly telling people around him, hey, don't worry, i'm not going to screw this up? i'm not going to be the mark sanchez of a couple weeks ago and throw one interception after another? is he feeling better about himself? >> i think the president's trying to calm the horses around him for sure. you know, the one thing we know about barack obama is that he's an incredibly intensely competitive politician and an incredibly intensely competitive human being. and the full magnitude of his -- of the badness of his

performance has sunk in around everyone around him, it sunk in with them before it sunk in with him, but he gets it. there's one fact about -- i think you're right, joe, in the sense that the vice presidential debate is ultimately going to be forgotten in the long run mainly because -- and i think you made a comment about this a few days ago about how the president's performance in denver has taken on the quality of urban legend. they're all around the country, people, if they saw the debate or not, they heard how barack obama got eaten by an alligator that came out of the sewer that dragged him down. you've got 67 million people who watched that debate, an historic number back in denver. the number i predict, i think with great confidence, that the number's going to be higher on tuesday because a lot of people in the country want to know, is barack obama going to rise to this challenge or not? they're invested in the story now. he failed spectacularly. is he going to rise to the challenge? as i say, you know, i have no idea whether he's going to do it on tuesday or not. but if you look back at his

history, throughout the senate races, race to the presidency, in the white house, when the pressure has been most on him is when he has tended to the rise to the challenge. i think he sees this correctly as the biggest challenge of his political career. >> john, i wonder if there are, like, two things that you've got to separate out from the spin and maybe the reality. "a," do we believe the stories that he's serious about his debate prep? because that's what they're pushing out, he's really serious this time. last time he was kind of distracted. and the other thing is the format. does this format work for him better than the other? >> i think the format is challenging in a variety of ways. he's going to have to -- he wants to go back, even though vice president biden attacked ryan in a number of ways, he's still got to go back and do contrast with romney. you're going to see a pivoting out of those questions from the audience in a lot of cases. but i think the hardest question to my mind that each of them is going to face is going to be about each of them. at some point someone in the audience is going to say to president obama, and he's faced this before and it's flummoxed

him, i loved you in 2008, and i'm really disappointed in you now. tell me why i invested so much hope in you. you let me down. why should i think things are going to be different? i think romney's going to get a question that's going to be hey, man, i work every day. and yet i get the earned income tax credit. and you call me in the 47%, you don't care about me. how do you answer that question? he's going to be confronted by a voter in a really direct way, both of them in ways that will be hard for each of them to pivot out of. they'll have to address them directly and those could be huge moments in the debate. >> no doubt about it. we've got a lot ahead including willie, we're going to be talking about sports. of course, the yankees are two down, but also terrible news this weekend with -- actually, it's terrible news not only for the yankees, it's terrible news for major league baseball. derek jeter went out with a terrible injury. >> yeah. yeah, he did. i got texts from my friends who are the biggest of all the yankee haters who say even i feel terrible about this. >> that's right. >> people like derek jeter. you can hate the yankees, but

they like jeter. we also have, joe, how big is this? pete townshend, what he's doing here with us, i'll never know, but he's going to be. pete townshend of the who. it keeps getting better, you go to dan balz of "the washington post." >> dan balz, the pete townshend of politics. >> he smashes his typewriter on stage. >> chuck todd will be here, also andrea mitchell, the stars of stars. up next, the top stories in the "politico playbook." first bill karins has a look at the forecast. >> good monday morning. huge storm in the middle of the country brought nasty weather. that is now sliding to the eastern seaboard. we have rain this morning. it's heading out of the mountains of north carolina around asheville heading for hickory shortly and eventually towards the queen city around charlotte and greensboro. that will be the tail end of the rush hour. further to the south, atlanta, it's raining now but it's almost over with. i think as we go throughout the peak of your rush hour, the rain should be moving off towards

your east. and then the final stop, down a little further to the south in areas of louisiana still to deal with some rain. new orleans, i'd say that rain probably about an hour away from you. so as far as what we're going to deal with in the northeast, it's a dry start to the day. it's very warm, just like it was on sunday. but we will have showers and storms around as the cold front slices through this afternoon. so be prepared for about a half hour to an hour period of rain. it's not going to rain all day. and then it will be gone. temperatures once again very mild. in the middle of the country who had the horrible weather over the weekend with the heavy rain and thunderstorms, you have an absolutely beautiful monday today. and there's no cold air behind this storm. it's going to be nice and mild throughout much of the heartland. nice start to the day in new york city. showers this afternoon. you're watching "morning joe." we're brewed by starbucks. ♪

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first of all, i want to thank centre college for hosting us this evening. >> oh, boy, here we go. >> four years ago president obama made a promise. that he would bring down unemployment below 6%. >> oh, this guy. i mean -- i'm sorry, martha. but with all due respect, this is a bunch of malarky. it's malarky. >> a bunch of malarky? >> yeah. >> what does that mean? >> it's irish. >> no, no, no. irish is i come over there and smack that dumb look off your face. >> you knew in the middle of the debate, willie geist, you knew that sudeikis was salivating. jim downing didn't even have to write anything. just replay the debate. >> it's unbelievable. let's take a look at "the morning papers." we'll start with "the wall street journal." hospitals throughout the u.s. are taking measures to improve patient comfort.

some of the changes being made, adding cable channels like espn on tv sets and taking my show off. also adding salmon dinners to menus. that's because nearly $1 billion in federal payments to hospitals will be based on patient satisfaction. part of a new program tied to the president's health care plan. espn and salmon. okay. glad we're spending our money that way. >> how about if you just come out of a hospital better? >> yeah. no, no, that's too easy. >> "new york times" this morning, a new report indicates many of the weapons being sent into syria intended for rebel groups fighting president bashar al assad actually ending up in the hands of islamic jihadists. the u.s. is not sending arms directly to the syrian rebels, but the obama administration is providing intelligence support for shipments of weapons such as rifles and grenades originating from saudi arabia. >> that's the lead story in "the times" and very troubling. from "the philadelphia enquirer" and from our parade of papers,

arlen specter, the longest serving u.s. senator in pennsylvania history, died yesterday at his philadelphia home from complications of cancer. it was just two years ago that his long career in washington came to an end. and president obama released a statement yesterday honoring the late senator for, quote, never putting party or ideology ahead of the people he was chosen to serve. willie, let's -- oh, we have one more paper, i'm sorry. >> there's one more. this is an incredible story. "the cedar rapids gazette," and every paper in the world frankly talking about this, a supersonic freefall, austrian daredevil, a guy named felix baumgartner, jumped literally from the edge of space becoming the first person to break the sound barrier using only his body. look at that video. that's from 128,000 feet above the earth. 24 miles up. reached a speed of 833.9 miles per hour and landed safely in new mexico.

now with five world records under his belt, he says he plans to retire. it seems like a good time to retire. >> absolutely amazing. the only thing that fell faster than felix, the yankees. >> here it comes. i knew that was coming. >> you knew it was coming. hey, willie, you want to do that this weekend? >> you and i were going to go parasailing anyway, that tandem parasail we do every weekend. >> i know, but let's do this instead. why not? holy cow. >> wow, that's incredible. >> willie is so good, i just kind of sit there and willie -- oh, it's a lot of fun. >> we do it right there off pensacola beach. it's a lot of fun. >> it is a blast. >> let's go to politico, our friend jonathan martin with a look at the "playbook." hey, jonathan. >> hey, willie. >> you guys are writing this morning about the big three, the three states that are going to determine this race. we talked about your battleground polling at the top of the show. we're talking ohio, florida and virginia. how does it shake out there? >> yeah, i track both the travel and the spending, willie, from the last two weeks. and that's the best measure that

we have of what the campaigns are focusing on, where the candidates are going, where they're spending their money. and overwhelmingly, it's on those three states. if you look at just romney's schedule alone, over the last two weeks, he's been to those three states, he's had 15 events in those three states. and the other six battleground states, he's had a total of just three events. and financially both the republican super pacs and romney campaign, the obama campaign and his super pac, they've spent more cash in those three states than anywhere else. and if you look at ohio especially, the spending in the big markets there, columbus, cincinnati and cleveland, it's much higher than any other markets in the country. so i think it really is coming down to those three. and the obama folks think that romney has got to have all three or there's no path for him. the romney campaign makes the case that they can win two of the three and still find a path, but it gets much more difficult because the margin of error, if you're romney and you only win two of the three, it doesn't

allow for any other losses, really. >> mark halperin, where does the romney campaign see the most opportunity, number one, and which one are they most concerned about? >> the most opportunity is florida. in fact, i think they are hoping they can effectively put it away in the next few weeks, the obama folks here don't agree with that. the ohio is the toughest one. romney continues to have i had yoeen idiosyncratic problems particularly the auto bailout. his time in ohio this weekend showed that he's looking for a winning economic message, part of it revolves around energy. but i think in general, he's going to need a stronger message there on bringing back the ohio economy which, of course, is already improving, which is complicating his message there when you've got a republican governor going around talking about how great ohio is doing. >> yeah, real quick, jonathan, is the map the winning map for mitt romney without the state of ohio? is that a pipe dream, really? >> not necessarily. there is a theoretical path you can do it if you have iowa, new

hampshire and colorado and nevada. again, if you lose one of those other states and you're romney, without ohio, then you don't get 270, and that's the problem. if you don't have ohio, you have to win pretty much everything else, and that's very tough for romney. but mark is right. florida, according to polling that i've seen, sources i've talked to, really is now moving towards romney. that helps a lot because there is no path if you don't have florida and you're romney. >> all eyes on ohio. jonathan martin, thanks so much. we'll talk to you. >> thank you, willie. one week from today, "morning joe" and "way too early" will be live in boca raton, florida, coverage in of the presidential debate. if you're in the area, come see the show, monday and tuesday is where we'll be at racks downtown eatery and tavern. racks downtown eatery on 402 plaza real. >> rack them up. >> we'll be right in mizner park. houston gets a tough matchup on nbc. aaron rodgers goes nuts for the packers. and matt ryan trying to keep his

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they go to tebow. tebow's going to throw. he's got a man wide open. for the first down, the jets take off down the field. well, you would think, after he's converted twice this year, tebow in tough situations, running it, that maybe someone would be wise to it. >> i guess they'll find a way to get him the ball somehow. joining us now, nbc sport's mike florio, the founder of the sports blog profootballtalk.com. good morning. >> guys, great to be here, as always. >> 35 points from the jets, where did that come from? >> they finally were able to do what they've always wanted to do, ground and pound. they got push up front from their offensive line. shonn greene had 161 yards rushing. it was an amazing day for him. and we think it was a great day for sanchez. he only had 82 yards passing so he didn't screw anything up so it's a great day for mark sanchez. >> does this change the dynamic at all?

does this quiet people who are saying you have to bench sanchez? but he wasn't great yesterday. >> i think it's going to be a week-to-week thing. if the team struggles, that's going to be the main topic. and it's going to go up and down all year long. but right now, they're 3-3. you look around their division, everybody's 3-3 in the afc east. it's crazy. >> what about the patriots yesterday? lost a tight one to seattle. what's their story right now? >> what happened? >> nobody's figured it out yet. you've got to play defense at some point. they weren't able to hold that lead. they took the crowd out of it in seattle. it's a tough place to play. they were up by double digits. and how do you let a guy split double coverage with the game on the line? and that's what happened. so even though we think the patriots are gradually improving on some of their weaknesses of the past, they came through yesterday. >> give that kid russell wilson credit. i don't think a lot of people expected this much out of him as a rookie. >> speaking of russell wilson and quarterbacks, what about matty heisman in atlanta? >> they're 6-0 now, and they're the only undefeated team left in

the nfl. it felt like they shouldn't have won yesterday, and maybe that's the mark of a great team. when they have a game that is just flat and the raiders, of allteams, looked like they were going to beat them, any get a defensive play when they need it from asante samuel. the raiders went back and tied the game, but the falcons made it happen, 55-yard field goal wins the game. it's just a question of when they clinch that division, they're in the nfc south. i thought it was thanksgiving. maybe by halloween. >> your game last night, the other undefeated team, the texans, no longer undefeated because aaron rodgers just went off last night. >> it was the texans' first appearance on nbc's "sunday night football." a lot of buzz, even though they lost brian cushing, to the year people thought the texans could get this done because the packers looked so bad. aaron rodgers reminded everyone that they still have punch. six touchdown passes. it was a laugher. >> did this tell you that the texans are more vulnerable than we thought or that the packers are better than we thought?

>> i think both. you can get a team 4-0, 5-0, maybe they really didn't play anybody all that good, you get the packers wounded, feeling like they had to win. they finally got it all together. they put it all together for 60 minutes. i think the packers showed us over the past two years, it doesn't matter how you play in september, october, november. what matters is do you get it together down the stretch? because they barely got into the playoffs in 2010 and won the super bowl. 2011, they were 15-1 wire to wire, but they stumbled in the postseason. the giants beat them and that's it. you don't have to be great in september and october. once you start hitting a roll, you can be great. >> speaking of the giants, they crushed the 49ers. >> and no one saw this one coming. if anything, i thought it would have been the 49ers crushing the giants. but what we learned is if you can get on top of the 49ers early in the game, they just can't respond. they get out of sorts. they need to get a lead and then gradually suffocate you, the 49ers do. it happened the other way around. and alex smith, even though he's getting better and better, he's still not at that elite level

where he can turn a game around on his own, and you need a quarterback who can do that. >> let's stay with that theme, then. tony romo, cowboys. >> well, look. somehow the cowboys were going to pull that one out until we saw yet another example of horrible clock management late in the game. they could have gotten that final field goal try a little bit closer. but they just let time run off the clock, didn't call a time-out. and we've seen that now a couple of times over the last few years by coach. sooner or later the owner jerry jones will call him into the office and say look, we can't have this anymore. >> a lot of people last week holding their breath when robert griffin iii went down. he's back yesterday and he's unbelievable. >> it was an unbelievable run from him, a 76-yard touchdown, 138 yards rushing, the most in a decade since michael vick in december of 2002 also against the vikings. so vikings were coming in with people wondering how they got to 4-1. and i think that was a more realistic performance from the vikings yesterday. i think we'll see more games like that because their defense

has some serious flaws, as we saw on that run. >> great run there from griffin. the redskins are only a game out. the giants are 4-2 in first place. these divisions are all up for grabs. >> the nfc east was up for grabs last year, and a team won with a 9-7 record. and one thing we've learned over the last decade, you throw out the records from the regular season. all it takes is a seat at the table come january, and you can run the table. and the giants did it, the packers did it the year before, the steelers have done it, giant says did it in '07. so we've got a long way to go. and it's still wide open. except for teams, you know, like the browns. but who knows? >> they got a win, though. >> if the ravens at 5-1 with all the injuries they have now, who knows? >> is ray lewis out for the year? >> they fear. and ladarius webb, top cornerback and their run stuffer could be out for several weeks, too. >> mike, before we turn the page to baseball, let's talk about another tough day for philadelphia's michael vick. >> well, and it was a tough day for him, multiple turnovers

again, but they had a ten-point lead in the fourth quarter. at a certain point you've got to say hey, defense, we spent all this money on improving this unit. you've got to hold the lead for us, especially against a wounded team like the lions. so it was a total failure by the eagles, and they have a bye week to try to figure out what went wrong and turn it around. >> quickly, we're going to talk baseball in a second. you see them filibustering here? how about those bcs standings. alabama, we knew, florida, number two. surprised it wasn't oregon? >> a little surprised, yeah, a little surprised. but it's still -- it washes out week after week. >> we'll leave the yankee as loan. >> no, we don't. no, we don't. >> by the way, the voters obviously impressed by florida's road win against vanderbilt saturday. >> there's notre dame lurking at five. >> can we talk about baseball? >> you may. i'm not going to talk about baseball. >> so barnicle, what's happening right now with the yankees/detroit series? i mean, obviously jeter's out, but is this an aging yankees

team? >> they are old, joe. they're very old, but they have a real shot at turning this thing around now because they're going to detroit, and all they have to do is face justin verlander. good luck, new york. >> well, the thing is, though, i mean, willie, it has to be surreal. here you are in the playoffs. and you're going without jeter and with a-rod being reduced. i've got a quick question for you. i think you would agree, and most yankee fans would agree, that it's good a-rod's been taken out at clutch times in these series. but what does that do for this guy's ego? i mean, it's got to finish him. taken out in the ninth inning in every key game? >> yeah. and when he does get up there, he's hitting with absolutely no confidence. it's written all over his face that he's going to strike out. and it's not just him. robinson cano who i think you would agree, one of the best hitters in the game. 0 for 26. that's historically bad.

granderson, nick swisher, they're just not hitting. the one guy who is hitting broke his ankle. >> although a-rod came up with a huge clutch hit in the ninth, willie. >> he did, that big one. >> he got a five-year extension from hal steinbrenner. >> and that call at second was terrible, but it's not the umpire that's not hitting. that didn't make the difference. >> i've got nothing to add to any of that. >> mike florio. coming up, the "must-read opinion pages." we're back in a moment.

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morning from the south of france by mika, somewhere in nice. and let's start with steve ratner. steve has written an op-ed in "the new york times," and the title is "the radical is romney, not ryan." "president obama should use tuesday night's debate to press mr. romney to defend -- or even just explain -- these proposed cuts, which would be far more draconian than those advanced by his running mate, paul ryan. mr. ryan is widely viewed as the real fiscal hawk, but in key areas, his views on spending levels are actually closer to mr. obama's than to mr. romney's. with respect to nearly half the budget, mr. romney and mr. ryan widely diverge from each other. mr. romney is calling for a huge increase in defense spending, roughly $2 trillion more over the next decade than ryan wants to spend which is only $400 billion above mr. obama's budget. even though the military is not asking for such an increase. such an increase would force giant reductions, about 40%, in

everything that's left. and katty kay, with libya on the front pages and sort of this growing scandal over security there, with syria in complete chaos, while we all know the defense budget needs to be cut over the next decade, it's going to be hard for the president to press that case, isn't it? >> well, yeah, except that the question is not how much money you're spending but how sbelg intelligently you're spending it. as libya has shown and joe biden tried to make the case during the course of the last debate, republicans had actually called for a cut in security spending at american embassies around the world. so i think the kinds of wars that america is fighting, it's not necessarily the sums of money that are involved but how intelligently, and that's the objection to sequestration, right? >> right. >> that this is an unintelligent

cut that's being made to the u.s. armed forces, it could actually diminish it, when as you say some are in the military are saying we can be slimmer, we can be more effective. i think the syria story is really interesting because that's something that hasn't really been picked up on, but both ryan and romney have suggested arming the syrian rebels. and yet we saw there david sanger's excellent reporting on the front pages of "the new york times" this morning suggesting that arms going to syria to the rebels are actually going to jihadists. now, that's -- you know, the perils of trying to arm the rebels at the same time that there are romney and ryan saying they'd do exactly that, i think that's an area that in terms of foreign policy that the president could pick up on during the course of the debate. >> except john heilemann, that's what the administration's been doing. they've actually pulled back and told our allies to stop arming the rebels. and you're going to hear in the debate, i fear, the republicans, probably mitt romney pushing barack obama to do even more in

syria as far as, you know, possible. i don't know if we're talking about boots on the ground. i don't know if we're talking about air strikes. but again, it seems that the instinct from the romney campaign, when it comes to military intervention, is always more, more, more, just like steve rattner, spending more on defense when the defense budget's already bloated, sending more troops in on some of these areas that are very difficult. but it's always -- the default position always seems to be we must do more. >> well, yeah, i think that's right, joe. and there are two things to say about that. one is, you know, it is to some extent a cheap talking point. but there is truth to this particular cheap talking point. mitt romney's surrounding himself by a lot of people who have a history of being in the neocon camp in terms of foreign policy and defense. and those people tend to be more pro-intervention than some other strains of republican thinking on foreign policy and national security. the second thing is that, you

know, one of the things we've seen with governor romney is that it's hard for him to debate -- to draw a clear contrast with president obama on foreign policy because, in fact, in terms of substance, there's not that much difference between them a lot of policy areas. syria is one area where he's seized on the notion that there is a dramatic difference. and in this case, the dramatic difference is that he's much more in line with the first point, he's much more -- seems much more inclined being more interventionist than the president does. and to the extent that that's the one area where he has a contrast, it kind of impels him to be in a place with national security. there's just no appetite in the country for greater invention in foreign conflicts now, but that's where romney ends up. >> there's not that appetite in the base of the republican party. i go out and give speeches to republican and democratic groups. but republicans, one of the big applause lines is let's rebuild america and stop rebuilding the rest of the world. you know, richard wolffe, though

i do expect, though, and i'm sure you do, too, mitt romney to seize on the lead story in "the new york times" today where "the times" says that the chaos in syria and the arms going into the hands of jihadists will actually play into the republican talking points. >> yeah. >> that the president needs to do more, that his efforts in syria have failed, over 25,000 people killed. the country coming apart at the seams. the weapons shipments that our allies are sending to the syrians ending up in the hands of the jihadists. >> look, if romney tries to do that, he's going to fail pretty badly because his policy to the extent we can figure it out in syria it actually not about air strikes or boots on the ground, it's more arms going to the rebels. he's trying to take that position at the same time as saying the reason we've got to do that is to fight jihadists who may have attacked our embassies and our consulates in north africa. you know, if you're worried about the jihadists, you can also simultaneously say we need to put more arms into a very

volatile situation in syria where you've got huge ethnic and sectarian differences as we saw in lebanon that can lead to a massive regional conflagration. the problem he has here is that the conservative position is against nation building. as you point out, republicans don't like this stuff. george w. bush in 2000 said the mission of the army is to fight and win wars. that was and is the conservative position. he doesn't speak for himself in terms of the party or i think where voters are. >> yep. no doubt about it. still ahead, much more. we've got andrea mitchell and chuck todd. they're going to be joining the conversation. and later, pete townshend from the who will be here. keep it right here on "morning joe." [ male announcer ] feeling like a shadow of your former self?

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katty kay, before we let you go down in washington, what's your key to tomorrow night? what are you looking for in the debate? >> i think it's going to be really interesting to see how much he's listened to his advisers, willie. because one of the things that happened last time around, you heard it from the white house before the debate, and you really heard it from them after the debate was that the prep team were telling him things like, if you look down, it's going to look like you're disengaged. you've got to keep your answers punch and crisp because otherwise you'll see professorial. and one person in the room before the denver debate said

effectively he doesn't really listen. he's so resistant to the format of kind of having to squash his policies into a short answer that he didn't listen to his advisers. are we going to see a very different president who has listened to advice. >> something's got to give. katty kay, thanks so much. we'll see you soon. coming up, andrea mitchell and chuck todd. keep it on "morning joe." with the spark cash card from capital one, olaf's pizza palace gets the most rewards of any small business credit card! pizza!!!!! [ garth ] olaf's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! helium delivery. put it on my spark card! [ pop! ] [ garth ] why settle for less? great businesses deserve the most rewards! awesome!!! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase, every day! what's in your wallet?

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hey, welcome back to "morning joe." the sun is about to rise in washington, d.c. a beautiful shot of the white house and down the mall. with us this morning still on set in new york, we have mike barnicle and john heilemann and also richard wolffe along with mark halperin in chicago. and joining us from washington, nbc chief foreign affairs correspondent and host of "andrea mitchell reports," andrea mitchell. so good to have everybody here. let's start by talking about this critical week that's ahead in the presidential election. the candidates, of course, are getting together for two more debates over this next week. and a new poll out of likely voters, just put out by "the washington post" and abc news puts the race within the margin of error and has president obama nationally at 49% and mitt romney at 46%. the poll shows a majority of americans now approve of the way the president's handling his job. 51%.

while 42% think the country is headed in the right direction. that's up 13% from the end of august. however, when they're asked if their opinions of the two candidates changed after the debate, 19% said they now view the president more negatively while 37% say they have a better view of mitt romney. and to confuse matters even more, a new politico/george washington university poll of the ten battleground states including florida, ohio and virginia show that mitt romney is up 50%-48%. that's a statistical tie. and also there's a new ppp poll out in ohio that shows the president's lead is actually increased in september with the president now at 51% to mitt romney's 46%. let's go to mark halperin, first to you. a lot of things to digest in these polls. i am noticing, though, in some of them, not all of them, because obviously gallup has a different number, as do other polls, but at least in the polls that are out this morning that we're looking at, in some of

these polls like "the washington post" poll, you're seeing the president over 50% for the first time in several years. that's obviously something that's got to bring relief to the obama white house. >> it does, but he's not at 52% or 53%. i think that if you just looked at the polls and you looked at the totality of the national and battleground states, the president still appears to have an edge, but he's not put the race away. and i think the reason why the debate is so big is because governor romney is moving towards, as i said earlier, being an acceptable choice for a lot of americans. the big thing for me in the polls, while he's improved in his attributes to some extent, his likability is up, for instance, he's not winning decisively by any means on the question of who would do a better job on the economy going forward. that remains the big issue in the campaign, not syria, not libya, not anything else. and i think the big thing for me in the debate and in general as romney goes to these battleground states is can he be more compelling on his economic vision for the future? right now the president's

message of don't go back to the bush years i think is more compelling and has been laid out more emotionally than romney talking about anything he's going to do in the future. >> well, mark, let's talk also just about what you're hearing. i'm going to ask your co-author, john, the same question. i always take my read from the campaigns behind the scenes and what they're saying. forget about the public polls. what are you hearing behind the scenes? the romney campaign obviously more energized. are you starting to hear some concerns? like, for instance, from the obama campaign that florida may be starting, as jim martin said, to slip into the romney camp. >> on the romney side, i spent friday and saturday with governor romney. he was doing debate prep. most of the senior staff was out. the body language there is pretty good because they feel like things continue to move in the right direction and that ohio is a state that they can grind out in the last few weeks. i'm not endorsing that view, but i was struck by how confident

they were. and romney's level of performance on two of the three events i saw was quite high. on the obama side, they continue to believe that of course they're not going to win most of these battleground states by six or seven points. so if the polls close to more like two or three, that's where they think the race will end up. their confidence is based on three things. one is they still think they have the better candidate despite denver, the better ground game by far and that that's going to make a two or thr three-point difference in a lot of these states. and they still think demographically they can target and energize in the end young voters, hispanics, african-americans and women in a way that will provide the advantage in these nine states. >> john heilemann, i want to follow up on something that mark is saying. it's one of the most interesting things that i found in talking to team romney. and that is the fact that when i talk to people who all along were very straight with me, not spinning me, when things were low, when, for instance, the libya press conference the day after, they were talking to me saying it was a terrible

mistake. i can't believe we did that. it was horrible. at the convention, these people in realtime were telling me that they agreed, things were going badly for romney at the convention, they had to turn around. these same people have been telling you for a week, don't believe what you're hearing in ohio. again, these are people at the top who have never spun me once that have always been very critical of their own operation, keep telling me, don't believe what you hear in ohio. we're going to grind it out in the end. john, why do they believe that? >> well, i think they think about history, joe. they think about the fact that this is a state that has -- richard wolffe mentioned before -- ohio has been a republican-leaning swing state for a long time. and i think one of the things that the romney campaign has always been confident of is that the structural dynamics favor romney. on the larger questions of the economy, on president obama's -- the right track/wrong track numbers, obama's approval rating. in the end, the structural

things, if they can get their candidate to perform well enough and make them an acceptable alternative, that then the basic underlying structure of the race would kick in. and that would benefit them. you know, the obama campaign's repost to that is, you know, you're really not looking at the particularities of ohio. and ohio is, you know, if you think about the things they're saying privately, ohio, ohio, ohio is one of of the first things. and they say look, the auto bailout, the fact that 32 or 33 out of 38 counties in ohio have directly benefited from the auto bailout, the fact that organized labor matters more in ohio than it does in any state in the country. the fact that they're ahead in early voting there. the fact as mark alluded to in terms of the ground game, they feel they've been investing in the ground game there for a long time. they think it's not a statistical blip. and the fact that they have -- it's tightened a little bit now, and according to these polls have them up by five. a few weeks ago it was more like eight. but they're still up by five in ohio. that's been consistent. they've had a disproportionate lead in ohio. it's been an outlier relative to

the other battleground states all along. and they think that's not a statistical anomaly. they think the romney campaign can talk about the history of ohio, but that things are different in ohio now. for the reasons i just said and the overall economic performance of the state. they feel really confident about the fact that they are -- that they have a decisive lead in ohio and that in the end, that that gives them a massive advantage going forward. >> andrea mitchell, three weeks out, team obama seems to have a four to five-point lead in ohio. the dispatch poll before the last debate had a nine-point lead. team romney, though, still thinks they've got a really good shot of winning that state. it is safe to say this year in 2012, as your dear friend tim russert would say, this year it is ohio, ohio, ohio. if mitt romney wins ohio, i think he wins the election. if he loses ohio, it's an outside shot, at best. >> i agree entirely because he's hoping to make inroads on that

economic argument, on energy, coal. but there still is that problem that he has on the auto issue and the economy is improving. john kasich himself, republican governor of ohio, has, of course, been talking about the lower unemployment below the national average in ohio. so the overall feel of ohio and, you know, interesting that at least in that one poll, the president has now broken to 51%, the right track/wrong track up to 42%, those numbers are good for him. i do agree with you, you know this better than anybody, i do think florida is really slipping away, and that makes it, first of all, more important for the obama team to try to get ohio because it does -- it does at least improve romney's chances of threading that needle, if he can win florida. >> no doubt about it. and obviously, willie, issue number one in ohio and across the country, is the economy, but

my gosh, a lot of things erupting across the middle east and the world that are going to turn an eye back to foreign policy, whether americans are tired of 12 years of war or not. >> yeah, we talked about this front-page piece in "the times" this morning on syria. also libya. a lot of questions surrounding that. republicans hammering at this, hoping the american people will take notice of the obama administration's handling of the deadly attack on the u.s. consulate in libya that killed four americans. yesterday morning senator lindsey graham of south carolina who sits on the armed services committee suggested the administration deliberately covered up some of the details. >> they're trying to sell a narrative, quite frankly, that the mideast, the wars are receding and al qaeda's been dismantled. and to admit that our embassy was attacked by al qaeda operatives and libya leading from behind didn't work i think undercuts that narrative. they never believed the media would investigate. congress was out of session, and this caught up with them. there was no way with anybody looking at all that you could

believe five days after the attack it was based on a riot that never occurred. there was no riot at all. so to say that, you're very incompetent or you're misleading. >> democrats are dismissing these allegations as political. david axelrod accusing mitt romney of cravenly trying to exploit the situation for political gain. >> i refer you back to the famous 47% tape in the spring where governor romney told in private told his supporters that he was waiting for a crisis, waiting for an incident to jump in on national security, and he did. he jumped in right away the day of these attacks with half information in a way that was denounced by both republicans and democrats. and there's no doubt that he's working hard to exploit this issue. >> andrea, as far as you can tell, what are republicans -- we heard a little bit from lindsey graham yesterday -- is the accusation more of incompetence from the obama administration,

or are we alleging a full-fledged cover-up of what took place? >> well, it's both. they're alleging both. and i think that they do feel that if they can't prove the cover-up, they can undercut the president's reputation for competence, osama bin laden, the other achievements in foreign policy that they can really undercut that. what the administration has yet to answer is the key question. we've been told in a background briefing from the state department -- and there was testimony -- that in realtime, the guard at the control -- what they call the top, the guard post, let's call it, outside that compound was in communication with both tripoli and washington in realtime. and there is video of that. so they saw the invasion by all of these heavily armed men coming over the wall, coming into the compound. and what they have not explained is how that information indicating from the very beginning in realtime to washington that there was no protest at all. it was completely quiet up until

that time. the ambassador had walked a dinner guest outside the gate to say good night. how that disconnect could have happened. and there is -- there was an intelligence assessment that advised all of the top officials including susan rice that there had been a protest initially. how about that intelligence assessment get it so wrong? that's what they have yet to answer. >> richard, why has the administration been not just defensive on this question but tied in knots by it? you had joe biden at the vice presidential debate saying well, they never asked us for more security at the consulate. when you go back two days prior, there was testimony to the contrary. how does the obama white house explain what happened? >> well, for starters, it's an incredibly chaotic situation for them in the beginning, and they have to make statements that frankly weren't really sourced right. that's their problem, that you've got intelligence reports coming through that aren't actually factual. and then you've got a cleanup job. you know, it's in the middle of a political season, so obviously there are lots of political

positioning going on from both sides here. but if you step back for where voters really look at this, and i agree with joe, i don't think this is going to play a dime's worth of difference in terms of the election outcome. but where voters look at it, senator graham who knows a lot about national security goes out and says, this administration's narrative on al qaeda's leadership is wrong. well, most voters will say, osama bin laden's gone. even if you look at libya to the extent that anyone understands libya, gadhafi's gone. the one character we know voters understand from north africa, he's not in power anymore as a direct result of americans' support for what went on in libya. so they can try scoring some tactical points, and i think they have on this particular incident around the consulate in benghazi. but the bigger picture, the bigger story, whether it's libya or al qaeda, i think still plays in favor for this president. >> you know, there is the bigger story, of course, in libya, chaos there, chaos in syria, the lead story in "the new york times," as we talked about

earlier, talking about the rebel arms flow is actually benefiting jihadists. "the new york times" said it cast out into whether the white house's strategy of minimal and indirect intervention in the syrian conflict is accomplishing its goal. it also talks about how this also undercuts actually mitt romney's view of what to do best in syria. and then andrea, of course, in pakistan, we have protests over the 14-year-old pakistani girl who was shot last week by the taliban because she was promoting education for girls. word now, 10,000, 15,000 people out in the streets protesting these shootings. and also, word that the girl is actually being evacuated. yousufzai was reportedly flown out of the country in a specially equipped ambulance out of the united arab emirates six days after being attacked by gunmen while riding home in a school van last tuesday.

she was specifically targeted by criticizing the taliban. over the weekend tens of thousands of people rallied in pakistan's largest city in support of the young girl. and you just wonder, andrea, whether this is one of those moments as you see people out in the streets in pakistan protesting the extremists and the thugs in the taliban. you just wonder if this is like the jordanian wedding. and i think it was 2006 where you had zakari blow up a jordanian wedding. in fact, al qaeda in iraq lost the hearts and minds of people in the middle east. you just wonder if you've got the uae getting involved, you've got protests in pakistan, it seems like muslims across the world coming together to stand shoulder to shoulder against this extremism. >> this could be a turning point in pakistan. how extraordinary would that be? because pakistan, i think, is

the single most dangerous place in the world for the united states and for all of our strategic interests. if this really is a mobilization by the people of pakistan because of what happened to malala, this 14-year-old girl, this child who was leading this movement in favor of girls' education and against the taliban, this could really be an historic moment. you point out jordan. it didn't happen in iran after the death of that young woman who wasn't even a protester in the green revolution in the streets in 2009. the people, you know, originally turned out for her, nadia, but eventually that petered out under the heavy boot of the totalitarian regime. if this does change pakistan profoundly, that has impact in pakistan and throughout the

region. >> mark halperin. >> you've got to wonder what the reason is for republicans who know the election is going to be primarily about the economy, why they continue to talk about libya, syria, why about governor romney give that foreign policy speech? my sense is their view of the race is particularly with the economy doing a little bit better, that they need to show that governor romney is stronger. you go back to castellano's very smart view of debates, you need moments of strength. and remember, we've got a whole debate on foreign policy coming up. he's trying to put himself as stronger than the president on the economy but also on all these international situations and to try to rattle the president a little bit. i think there is a tactical thing, as richard said, on libya and benghazi, but i think it's also kind of a strategic thing to say, can we put forward governor romney, again, to rebuild his image as somebody who's stronger than the president. and the white house, because the world events now are pretty chaotic, are struggling more than they have for most of the president's time in office, making the case that he is absolutely stronger than the alternative. >> so while it may not be

specifically -- americans may not focus specifically on libya or on syria or on pakistan and the chaos there, it's just an issue of strong leadership. okay. so we'll see if that works. andrea mitchell, thank you so much. greatly appreciate you being here. who do you have on at 1:00 p.m.? >> we're going to talk to ed rendell about, among other things, arlen specter. i first covered him in '67 when rendell was a young assistant d.a. working for him. bob mcdonnell speaking about the president and mitt romney with the president doing debate camp in williamsburg, virginia, where bob mcdonnell is governor of virginia, a key senate race there. >> you're obviously going to be talking about rg3's run. >> rg3, 76 yards, the longest run by a quarterback for a touchdown, longest rush since 1996 in pittsburgh. >> yeah. unbelievable. you know, willie geist, as we look at this run, so much for

rg3 just heading to the sidelines meekly. he said screw it! i'm going to the end zone! >> a lot of people wondered if he was going to play. he's playing and then some yesterday. >> unbelievable run. unbelievable game. washington is excited. boy, after the hangover from the nats' loss, they needed this win. they needed that run. still ahead, we've got pete townshend of the who. he's going to be on set to talk about his new biography. and also next, nbc news political director, the man who is called the roger daltrey of political pundits, chuck todd. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. americans are always ready to work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times.

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i think there's a lot of hype. and as i said throughout, even when the polls were wildly positive for us, that these public polls are all over the place.

and the reality of the race on the ground is that we're ahead. it's a little bit narrower than it was before the last debate. but we feel good about where we are, and we've got a great ground game going. we expect governor romney will have a great debate, too. he's a great salesman. that's what he did as a professional, and he's very, very good at it. >> welcome back to "morning joe." the live shot of washington. let's bring in from washington nbc news chief white house political correspondent and political director and host of "the daily rundown," chuck todd. and chuck, david axelrod has got it nailed. these public polls are all over the place, privately both sides are saying that things are narrowing. obviously two debates over the next week. this has got to be the most important week of the campaign before the final run. what does president obama have to do to change the narrative, to stop the bleeding? even if the bleeding is down to a trickle now? >> reporter: yeah, it's called winning a debate.

this is the most important debate since the last debate, and it's the most important debate till the next debate. >> wow! >> how about that? >> yeah, that's something. >> no, actually, i do think this debate is -- mitt romney's biggest problem, what's the thing that's keeping him from closing the sale? likability, personal comfort. is he -- he may not be one of us, but does he understand us? well, of all the three debates, what's the one where you interact with real people? this town hall debate. you know, for romney, this is the debate where he could win this election. he could blow up the stereotype that he, you know, can't interact with people, doesn't, you know, have that sort of bill clinton gene in him where he knows exactly the right time to put an arm around somebody, exactly the right time to connect with somebody. and that's why it is -- you know, it's more than just the president having to win this debate to stop the bleeding, to

change things. but this is the moment -- the first debate was romney getting into the playoffs. this is the debate where he could almost close it out if it's such a good performance because of the format, right? and because it would help him in this big -- in this one area where he's got the biggest deficit, connecting with the average american. >> if you're the incumbent president and you're in this type of format and you're george h.w. bush and you look down at your watch, it's even worse with all of these americans around you watching. it makes you seem more disconnected. it seems to me the president has a very big challenge, seen as a guy that's been detached, emotionally withdrawn. if he doesn't turn in a good performance with americans there at this town hall-style meeting, that seems to me that it's more than just the biggest debate until the next debate. >> i agree. >> this could be a real problem. >> and i know -- i think we're both being very hesitant to hype

this like that. >> right. >> but i feel like this one is that big. because, you know, there's something that happened in the campaign. it wasn't just that romney got in with that first debate and it sort of -- you know, at first you heard democrats saying oh, republicans are just coming home. and that's what tightened the polls. and in fact, i actually heard some republicans say that. i have to say, in the private data that i've heard about over the last couple of days and the last 72 hours plus what you're seeing, i feel like there has been a structural shift. we're no longer in this. it's even, but the president has these advantages. the but the president has these advantages in the battleground states i think is gone. yes, the president has an advantage in ohio, but we're starting to see a consistent romney, very narrow, but a romney lead in places like florida. we're seeing colorado totally dead even. iowa closing. so i think that there is something structural that happened. and that's why this debate, critical time.

if the president doesn't show up, he could end up in a deficit that i don't know if one more debate could make it up. >> chuck, there has been all sorts of stories spun by the obama people out of the white house that this time the president is really focusing in on the debate. >> reporter: this time. >> this time he's really serious about the debate prep, he's really doing his homework. given that and if he is focusing on his homework, what are the odds that the president comes right out of the box and demands some specifics from governor romney about his economic plan, principally for people like living in ohio and the rest of the united states? there's been very little specifics on both sides. but especially on the romney side. >> reporter: well, this is a harder format for him to do that, right? that's the tricky nature of the town hall, right? you can't just come out of the box and do what he fully wants. it's one thing to ignore a moderator question. it's another thing to ignore the question from somebody you don't know. from somebody that's not there. and so you have to be careful there.

look, i think the president's going to pick and choose the sort of three areas, the three or four areas that focus group best with biden versus ryan, right? i think you're going to hear him talk a lot. i think he's going to figure out how to get in contraception and abortion. i think that was clearly paul ryan's weakest moment where biden's probably one of his strongest moments. they're going to try to get at this -- what i've been curious about is i do think they're still conflicted. do they attack romney as a flip-flopper or as a conservative hiding in moderate clothing? and i think that, you know, there is a difference in trying to attack somebody this way. and i think that there's still -- you read their sort of debate pre-spin today, there still seem to be not sure which is the better avenue to go. i think they're going with he's the conservative hiding in moderate clothing, but that, i think, is not fully litigated. >> john, you're nodding your head yes. >> yeah, i think they're trying to get -- the way they were

winning this race for months was by portraying governor romney as a conservative in moderate's clothes or just as a conservative straightforwardly, that his positions on issues that matters to swing voters are too extreme. they're just a replay of the bush positions and of the positions of congressional republicans that are not that popular in the middle elector e electorate. they need to try to get back there. and flip-flopper is not the way. they've got to figure out some way to pin him back into being conservative, and that conservative in moderate's clothes, this is what the liar liar argument is about. it's not he's dishonest. it's the way in which he's being dishonest, he's lying about this -- about what he really is and what he really is is someone who you can't trust and someone who is, in fact, much more conservative than his new positioning, his etch-a-sketch mitt romney image is. >> all right. thank you so much, chuck. we'll see you, as always, on "the daily rundown" right after "morning joe." who are you going to be talking

to? >> we've got mr. talent, jim talent from the romney campaign. plus i've got some fun really geeked-out data stuff from our nbc/"wall street journal" poll and the exit poll. we've been weighing it to the exit poll so you get a real sense of where is obama eroded, where are his strengths and romney's strengths but it's in the weeds, i'll admit. >> now is the time to get in the weeds. nerds like us love it. >> that's right, nerds like us. >> really quickly, you've got jim talent coming on, former missouri senator. a lot of people wanted him to jump in the race and get akin out. what's the state of that akin/mccaskill race right now? >> mccaskill has the lead but not insurmountable. i think the problem for akin is money and resources. and they're not all there. she's only just now litigating the tough stuff. she's had a week of the really harsh ad up against akin, having other republicans say the name.

so let's see. but it seems that she still has struggled to crack 50. she's been ahead, but she's struggled to crack 50, sitting right at 48, 49. sounds familiar, doesn't it? >> it does sound familiar, but i tell you what, we republicans, we'll in the end do what it takes to keep races we should run away with very close. i still don't see the national party coming in to help akin out. >> i don't think so either. >> i think it hurts republicans across the nation if that happens. >> do you really want todd akin as being the guy that put republicans in the majority? >> exactly. >> do you want to have that -- remember 1994, republicans won without ollie north. how important was that to them? i always thought that was huge. >> i also have the republican senatorial committee looking at places they don't usually look at. the possibility of picking up in maine. the possibility of picking up in connecticut. if they can do that, those are two huge victories.

>> nrsc raw baby, monday night raw. coming up next, we've got "the washington post's" dan balz. he says this week might be the most important of this presidential election. we'll talk to dan when we return on "morning joe." [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac

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one week from today "morning joe" and "way too early" going to be live in boca ton, florida. special coverage of the final presidential debate, we will be there. if you're in the area, come see the show monday and tuesday at racks downtown eatery. that's at mizner plaza. 402 plaza real. you know where it is if you live in the area. we'll be there starting at 5:30 in the morning monday and tuesday of next week. getting you ready and then reacting to that final presidential debate. coming up this morning, our next guest says the election about to enter its most critical week. dan balz of "the washington post" next on "morning joe." honey, they have the 55 inch lg...

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welcome back to "morning joe." 7:42 here on the east coast. joining us now from washington, the chief correspondent for "the washington post," dan balz. dan wrote in his piece yesterday for "the post," quote, the pressure is squarely on the president tuesday night, given his performance in denver, but romney, too, needs a strong evening to cement the first. he cannot afford any backsliding. his advisers know that if, as expected, the president does a better job tuesday, stories will inevitably be written about his bounceback. no one expects a second mismatch. dan, good morning. good to see you. >> good morning. thanks. >> let's start right there. we've been talking about this debate tomorrow night out on long island. this morning, any chance we're overhyping it, overstating the importance of it? >> well, it's hard to overhype this debate given what happened in the first debate. i mean, it's always easy to overhype any single event. but given the president's performance out in denver, i think this is obviously a very big event. as i say, i think for both candidates. obviously much more focus on the president and how he's going to come back and what he's going to do differently in this second

debate than he did in the first, but also for romney. i mean, romney needs another good performance to keep that kind of sense of enthusiasm that's now around him going. if he has -- if he has a bad night, it's going to take a lot of wind out of the sails of the republicans. >> richard. >> dan, i know we follow the debate back and forth and the tactics and the shift of how both campaigns operate, but i'm struck by something in the new "washington post" poll that has the president's approval rating over 50%. now, we've had three years of most of us saying how come the president's languishing so low in the opinion polls? what would you say is behind his approval ratings cracking 50%, a very important mark? it clearly isn't his recent debate performance. so is there something else going on maybe with the economy? what's your view? >> if i had to point to one thing, it would be the economy. every poll that we've seen from mid-september on has shown some small uptick at least in people's attitudes about the direction of the country.

it showed up again in our poll. we've got -- there's still a majority of people who think that the country's off track going in the wrong direction. but the percentage of people who now say it's going in the right direction continues to tick up a little bit. and i think in many ways, that's the most important thing that is helping the president at this point during an otherwise pretty difficult period. >> dan, mark halperin's with us from chicago with a question. mark? >> hey, dan. a question for you that's hard to answer, i know, but we've talked all along about how the obama ground game, the mechanics of it, how long it's been up and running, the size of it is superior to what the republicans have been able to build. but also on the other side of that, republican enthusiasm, that that may trump the mechanics that the obama people have built. what's your sense of the state of play there? are the republicans building something mechanical? or are they just going to have to rely on greater enthusiasm? >> well, i think they are building something. the two campaigns have different theories or different philosophies about how you do this.

and the obama campaign is very heavy on the idea of, as many offices in a state as possible. and i think that in terms of those metrics, they outweigh what the romney team has done. the last time i was in chicago, one of the president's senior advisers said to me, you know, we have a harder time getting some of our people out. and that's certainly the case with young people. you can see by the places that the president has been going the last few weeks, how worried they are about motivating young voters. i mean, constantly he's on college campuses trying to rev up enthusiasm. so, you know, you can never tell, mark, as you know, you can never tell until election day who's really got the better operation. when you talk to both campaigns, each one feels quite good about what they have built. and i think the real question is, how much enthusiasm is there? and on the democratic side, can the turnout operation that they've built overcome what is clearly less enthusiasm for obama this time than there was four years ago? >> hey, dan, you are the cal

ripken of campaign coverage. you've been at it for a long time, spectacularly well. we just heard a reference a few minutes ago in another segment about focus group material being used perhaps by the obama team in preparation for this debate, the focus group stuff would be from the -- what they garnered from the biden/ryan debate. so what's your sense in terms of what's out there in the country? let's set focus groups aside. do you think or do you feel or do you sense that there are a lot of people out there wondering why don't either candidate just simply tell us in more specific terms where they want to take us? >> mike, it's a very interesting and difficult question to answer. if you look at our new poll that just came out this morning, 65% of the people say they don't need any more information about these candidates. you know, they're locked in. they know what they think. they know where they're heading.

there's a small percentage that still want more. on the other hand, if you ask them has either governor romney or president obama given enough information about their policies and what they would do if they were elected in november, more people say no. a majority says no. i think for both of these candidates, there are still questions that need to be answered. the president is certainly going to bore in on the romney tax and economic plan. but there's a question for the president. the president has spent so much of his time this fall talking about the dire consequences if romney is elected and not talking about what his real priorities and agenda are for a second term. tomorrow night is an opportunity to do that, as will the last debate in florida. but neither of these candidates has really come clean on exactly how they're going to do what they claim they want to do. >> john heilemann, that's absolutely fascinating, the majority of americans say they've heard all they need to hear from these candidates, when neither side's talking about how they're going to save medicare,

medicaid, how they're going to save social security, how they're going to cut defense spending over the next ten years to make it sustainable, what they're going to do about a tax system that is just bloated and a health care system that remains just an absolute mess. you look at these poll numbers, and you wonder what most americans are looking at. because we still haven't gotten answers to the big questions. >> well, i think, joe, that the answer partly is that both -- is that the obama campaign has done a pretty good job in turning this race into a referendum on the clinton years versus the bush years. so for a lot of voters, that's what they think. they're hearing that governor romney wants to take us back to the bush years. and they see president obama now kind of taking the mantel of the clinton years and putting it on his shoulders. and for most voters, a lot at least, that's a pretty clear choice and part of the reason why i think president obama is doing better on the economy because that is a choice most voters, a lot of voters at least, the clinton years are a

preferable model than the bush years given the level of prosperity in the '90s versus the decade that followed. >> but dan, how sad is it that you've got two candidates that refuse to talk about the next four years? and instead, you've got a sitting president who says, you know what? i'm going to take you back to what it was like two presidents ago it was like two presidents ago and the other guys are going to take you back to what it was one president ago instead of either side saying, this is how we're going to grow the economy over the neck four years. this is how we're going to avoid the fiscal cliff, how we are going to cut it out and depending on who is elected, we have one path in one direction, another path in another direct. there's no question that this campaign has not revealed specificity about the future projects that you're talking about but also no question that these candidates are as far apart as any in the modern era.

>> dan, i've got to ask you, i find that surprising that you'd say that because, again, you look at the numbers. in what -- by what measure are they the most different in the modern era? >> well, i think in terms of what they would do with taxes, what they would do with spending, with the military, all of them are far apart as we've seen in the debates in congress in the last year, year and a half. on those things they are very far apart and we continue to remain far apart. the question is, what exactly who they do under their different philosophies. >> thank you so much, dan. we need to get you back to continue that conversation. up next, gary hopkins from man city joins us for the

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joining us now, manchester city football club, our good

friend gary hopkins. he's also the author of "star spangled soccer." you're a great ambassador, not just for your futbol club but you had a remarkable day in chicago. tell us about that. >> yes, we did. there is one in miami, los angeles, rooftop last time we were here in new york and we opened one in chicago last thursday. so we were there on thursday and rahm emanuel came out for the event. 1200 people from the community came out. >> why do you do this? why does man city put itself on

the line? and it just makes sense. let just build these fields. so we knew the great demand. >> gary, i see kids playing soccer every weekend, lots of enthusiasm. are the parents getting into it, too? that's my question. >> there are two level. inner city soccer where they do love it and equal demand and love for the sport of soccer. in our hispanic communities and ethnic communities. but there is no green. that's where we focused. inner city they haven't got space. we have them all coming out.

we have families, moms, dads all out there on the field. kids are up night playing until the lights went out. we know that it's a huge demand and we're happy that we are trying to fill that. it's a passion for soccer. it makes it very wealthy and you still can do great things. the idea really is to build these across the country and they are enthused and we are enthused. it just seems to get better. >> gary, speaking for all liverpool fans, speaking for richard wolf, if you guys want to talk to your friends in the uae, we'd greatly appreciate it. gary, we want to thank you and ucef, of course, the uae and, yes, even man city for doing some remarkable things not just in new york but chicago and also

across the country. ucef, thank you. it's visionary. still ahead, british rock legend peter townshend. he's going to talk to us about his remarkable life. that was me still taking insulin

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there are still challenges to meet. children to educate. a middle class to rebuild. but the last thing we should do is turn back now. president obama: i'm barack obama and... i approve this message. good morning. it's 8:00 here on the east coast and 5:00 as you wake up on the west coast. mike barnicle, richard wolf,

mark halperin with us in chicago. so much to talk about but let's start with talking about this critical week ahead in the presidential election. the candidates are getting together for two more debates within a week. you know -- you just got to know the face of this race is going to change again. a new poll out of likely voters sets the stage and this is by "the washington post" at abc news and puts the race within a margin of error, president obama at 49% and romney at 46% and the majority of americans approve of the way that the president is handling his job. 51%. while 42% believe the country is heading in the right drinks. however, when they are asked about the candidates and whether their opinion of the candidates changed, 8% view it better and a

new george washington politico battleground state voters poll out. mitt romney is ahead in the swing states 50 to 48%. that's a statistical tie. there's also a new public policy poll of likely voter in the state that may matter the most this year. ohio. it actually has the president up by 5 percentage points. let's start with john hileman. mitt romney and barack obama really neck-and-neck whether you're looking at the national polls or the battleground state polls. >> yeah, that's right. there's no question about it, joe. you can see that as we've gotten a little further away from the first debate where president obama performed so poorly, you can see that the lingering effects have been less than we might have thought before.

the national numbers are back to jump ball. i keep looking at ohio at the end. the closer we get to election day, the more we have to think about the past 270 electoral votes and that ohio number at 5 is still a big problem for mitt romney if he's going to get all of the way there. >> if mitt romney cannot win ohio -- and at this point you have early voting going in, absentee voting going in. that's happening in 43 state. you're most concerned about ohio. if you're down by five percentage points in a poll, some say it's 2, some say it's 3, but if we are sitting at 4, 5%, that's happening where early voting is going on. mitt romney -- bottom line is, if he does not win ohio, he can still be president of the united states but he's got to win florida, north carolina, virginia, iowa, he's got to win colorado, he's got to win nevada. he's got to win them all.

>> and it's a republican leaning battleground state. you know, ohio gives me flashback to 2004. this week, 2004, october 10th -- actually, after the presidential debate, john kerry had a lead of voters by one point after two debates and we all know how that ended up and it came down to ohio. these latest round of polls show that that isn't the case. >> actually, it seems, mike, if you look historically over the past several weeks, you look at the first debate, the vice presidential debate, it seems like it kept mitt romney in the game. if mitt romney doesn't do very well in the first debate, the race is over. and so i guess any romney person

looking at these polls saying, geez, we're still behind by a couple points in the national polls. they could thank their lucky stars that romney turned in a great debate, the president turned in a poor debate or else they are looking like the new york yankees 2-0 down going into detroit. i'm sorry, willie, a bad example. >> that's awful. >> but it's true. >> it's actually delightful. >> the interesting thing about ohio, i think, to several people, speaking this weekend and i'd like to hear from mark halperin on this who has been out in the field for basically a week with the candidates and campaign, is this the inevitable tightening of the race in ohio and elsewhere at this stage of the campaign season? or did the president do so much damage to himself in that debate that that's resulted in the race being as tight as it is right now? what do you hear, mark?

>> well, i spent friday and saturday in ohio with governor romney. and go back to sort of the fundamentals that we talked about last year. and one of the principles there is you have to make the other guy, the challenger, unacceptable. and one of the things -- and this is based on reporting and a little bit of touch and field being out in the field. one of the things that struck me about being in ohio, romney is seeming like strong enough that voters look at him as acceptable and given the state of the economy, that has been the big worry of the obama campaign all along. that's why we've heard so much about bain capital, about his swiss bank account, his personal taxes, et cetera. it's going to be interesting to see if the obama campaign tries to drive some of that personal stuff. and if they don't and governor romney emerges as successful, that may give him enough to win

ohio and enough of the battleground states to get just over 270. >> one issue that both candidates and both campaigns seem to agree on is a growing concern with the debate moderator tomorrow night. tell us about that. >> well, it's on time.com and it's a complicated issue. because you have these four entities. you have the two campaigns, the commission on presidential campaigns and then the individual moderator. candy crowley is moderating the town hall on tuesday. she's got a unique challenge. the commissioner and campaign wants it to be driven by the questions that come by the people asking gallup, citizens who are likely voters and both campaigns have been struck by some of the interviews that candy has done, talking about her role and what she envisions her role to be. things are a bit in fluk flux.

it's clear that the campaign has checked with candy to say, do you get the fact that we think this should be a very limited role, a traffic cop after audience questions. and it remains unclear at this point if she envisions this role the way that the commission and campaigns do or whether she wants to play a more active role in following up after they've answered the question from the citizen. >> mark, will this matter at the end of the day? a week ago we were talking about martha raddatz and a big firestorm. same thing with gwen eiffel four years ago. will this matter at the end? >> candy is a pro and i think she understands what the goal is which is to get as much from the candidates in the 90 minutes. the question is, how much of the audience questions they get to and how much the campaign responds. basically, from their point of view, the time given to the audience questions rather than

candy's. the quality of the aud general questions matter a lot and one of the key questions that candy will have, which will be behind the scenes, is calling the questions, reading the questions that are submitted by the audience members. she has to choose which ones will be asked and in which order. that's a big function. >> back to the state of the race, reset them for you. we have two debates coming up in a span of a week. we talked about ohio but for team romney as well. even for florida, it's a margin of race. carolina closer than the romneys would like it to be. if you're mitt romney, if you're that campaign, how are you feeling three weeks out? >> you've got to be feeling good that things are moving in your direction and you're the team that seems to have the momentum but clearly the numbers are not quite there yet and if the race was today and we all had to put our savings into which way it would go, we would probably still put it in obama's favor

because of ohio and the numbers. i think there's been so much focus on barack obama's debate performance in denver, much less than mitt romney's positive performance. mark was talking about mitt romney having made himself acceptable during the course of that debate, it's a huge part of this story. the obama campaign spent millions during the course of this year on negative ads to make mitt romney an unacceptable choice and what he did during the course of 90 minutes was make himself acceptable. and i think that -- if that is as much at play in this as obama's weak performance and although we will be watching obama in the debate tomorrow night, i think actually how mitt romney performs is going to be just as significant and if he carries on with the positive performance, again making himself acceptable to the american voters, then i think that's critical and to get back to the 2004 campaign, the issue of that campaign was national security. that campaign was lost basically

in clark county, ohio, or something. the issue of that campaign was national security and i remember during the course of 2004 thinking i don't understand what john kerry's position is on iraq and if i don't understand who is covering that campaign every single day, how on earth can the american voters understand it? and john kerry, somehow on the issue of the 2004 campaign, was not acceptable. his positions was incomprehensible. that was a big part of the factor. he lost that campaign. >> and i tell you what, you're exactly right about mitt romney's performance. another great performance by mitt romney is going to have a real impact moving forward in the last couple of weeks. on the effort by the obama team to try to make him look unacceptable, like the romney team is trying to make the vice president look unacceptable. you saw -- if you're one of the 88 million who wake up every day to watch willie geist, you saw the vice president's debate, 88

million, 89 million? i forget. >> it changes depending on the day. but that's the average. >> i'm, of course, counting streaming and radio and all of that. about 88, 89 million. anyway, you saw the funny "snl" skit. team romney is using the vice president's permaneformance in w ad. take a look. >> we can't keep spending and borrowing like this. we can't keep spending money we don't have. they come in here in a tough situation, absolutely. we're going in a wrong direction. look at where we are. the economy is barely limping along. don't raise taxes on small businesses because they are our job creators. mitt romney is uniquely qualified to fix these problems. >> i'm mitt romney, and i approve this message. >> mike barnicle, you knew that was going to happen.

did he look a little goofy laughing while the debate was veering from libya to dead u.s. ambassadors to bad economies and always laughing and chuckling? was that a little over the top? >> yeah. sure it was. sure it was. and in retrospect, i think the vice president would say, you know, he probably should have behaved a bit better. >> why do you think he did that? we know joe and he's been in the u.s. senate since he was 29 years old. he's a shrewd politician. he's great in debates. it's almost like he was given marching orders to go in there and do this. i'm just curious, what do you think was going on? >> well, i think a couple things were going on. one you just referenced. i think the objective that he had was to go in there and do exactly what he did to, you know, back the dumptruck up on paul ryan in term of things that the president did not mention during the first debate with governor romney and the second

item i think he was obviously trying to get under congressman ryan's skin, which he didn't do. he did make congressman ryan nervous a couple of times. he went threw a lot of water during the debate. >> hold on, mike. that's very unfair. if you do this 9x90 stuff, you have to hydrate. hydrate and moisturize. if you don't do those things, you can't do it. >> that's true. >> of course, you and i will never know about any sort of px90 whatsoever. it's a bike or something. the vice presidential debate really at the end of the day doesn't matter, didn't matter. paul ryan held serve and you've got biden who energized his base, i think. it's all going up to this week. is the president quietly telling people around him, hey, don't worry, i'm not going to screw this up. i'm not going to be the mark

sanchez's of a couple of weeks ago and throw one interception? is he feeling better about himself? >> i think the president is trying to calm the horses around him, that's for sure. the one thing we know about president obama is he's an incredibly intensely politician, an incredibly intensely competitive human being. he gets it. i think there is one fact about -- i think you are right, joe, the fact that the debate is ultimately going to be forgotten in the long run. mainly because -- and i think you made a comment about this a few days ago, about how the performance in denver -- they are all around the country, even if they saw the debate or not, they heard about how barack obama got eaten out of a sewer and dragged down. an historic number watched that debate back in denver.

the number that i predict with great confidence, is barack obama going to rise to this challenge or not. up next, our conversation with legendary pete townshend. and another dose of the political playbook with michael len. first, bill karins with a check of the forecast. >> what a weekend it was. if you were watching some of the football games in the midwest, you saw how windy and wild the weather was with all of the heavy thunderstorms. we had a very warm weekend, too. look at the high temperatures on sunday. it was warm everywhere. it's all of that cold air that is gone. one warm day on the eastern seaboard. it's humid, too. showers and storms and a few located around charlotte and they are going to slide towards greensburg and raleigh and then up towards virginia. we have wet weather in the

forecast today. it won't last long. probably about an hour at most during the afternoon hours. delays are also possible. the rest of the country, with the exception of the pacific northwest looks great today. look at denver. 77 and sunny. same with dallas. heavy rain moving into seattle and portland and through this evening. that's one spot that definitely could be dealing with airport delays. looks like a nice quiet tuesday and no big storms are coming across the nation. you want us to talk about beautiful? sun rise right through the gateway there in st. louis. i don't spend money on gasoline. i am probably going to the gas station about once a month. last time i was at a gas station

was about...i would say... two months ago. i very rarely put gas in my chevy volt. i go to the gas station such a small amount that i forget how to put gas in my car. [ male announcer ] and it's not just these owners giving the volt high praise. volt received the j.d. power and associates appeal award two years in a row. ♪ boring. boring. [ jack ] after lauren broke up with me, i went to the citi private pass page and decided to be...not boring.

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a member of the legendary hall of fame, pete townshend is here. we're honored to have you here. my bucket list, seriously. paul mccartney, pete townshend, check, check, it's over. that's true. we're going to cut through this interview since my year has been made. let's start out with, a remarkable book. you had wanted to write your auto biography since you were a young man. you wrote it at 67. you are a procrastinator, right? >> well, growing up with my dad

who was in an english air force band, i remember being on the band -- your girl is here. whenever i get into a show business situation, whether it's tv or radio, i feel comfortable because i was brought up in that world. when i was about 20, i realized that i deposed my father. the guitar took over for the saxophone. but more than that, the kind of song that i was writing deposed all of the music that had gone before, the songs that were being written in the early '60s had made the songs that had gone before look as though the function had changed. we needed a different kind of music. and in a sense, that's why this book is here. it's bigger and longer than it would have been back then because i've tried to bring it to the present day, which has been tricky but i've done it. >> it was a fascinating time that you grew up in, obviously

post war. whether it was you or lennon, mccartney, talking about this big shadow and here you come along and the beatles, the kinks, rolling stones as well, what a remarkable time. >> we were responding to the changes that happened, which were, of course, i didn't discover those changes. they just happened. what's interesting is the fact among young americans, they felt the same, that something had changed. it was the nuclear bomb. it meant that we could never get the dignity that our parents and grandparents have gotten by being a gun and told to kill the enemy. that was in the past so our function and dignity was going to come from somewhere else.

i've always used the word disenfranchisement. we were happy, free, safe. i think we felt safe. but we knew that our parents and grand parent have been through some terrible times. you know, 100,000 women were raped in hungary when it was deserted. vienna went through an incredible time. these are things that we could never, ever rise to in a city pop song. so my dad's music is how do we rebuild, fall in love again after the war. our music was what can we ever do that will match that. >> right. >> so in a sense, the beatles, the stones, and the who were just responding to a whole group of young people who wanted music. we wanted to give it to them. >> yeah. >> but what they wanted to say was, you know, they couldn't put it into words.

>> why did it get out of their shadow? there's that great line in the hard day's night, to john lennon, i fought the war for the like of you and john lennon said, i bet you're sorry you won. that takes you to '64. >> so let's talk about the who. let's talk about that. in 1964 you get your big break, i can't explain, you said you were list chening to the kinks roger tells you immediately this song is crap. and later in the book, at the end of the book you have roger going to you, you know, isn't this tour great? and you're like, take it or leave it. you guys always seem to love to torture each other. it's a fascinating relationship. >> we are closer now than we've ever been and now i realize that it's the neighborhood.

we're from the neighborhood. we came from a neighborhood and we were polar open sits of the neighborhood and certainly from the same neighborhood. you know, roger portrays himself as working class but he's not really working class. someone sleeping ten to a room, i knew what it was like and these were my customers. >> yeah. >> as a songwriter. i wanted to reach them and touch their hearts but roger always felt he didn't need to go through that process because he was one of them. >> right. >> all hi to do was get a song for him that he liked and then i realized i was one step closer to pleasing the audience because he was a filter. and we did argue a lot in the early days but never -- never in the way that we portrayed. >> yeah. >> we knew it was good press. >> one step closer, he was also -- roger was also the one

that got all of the girls. >> yeah. >> you just got to hate those guys. it's too easy for them. >> what do you think of music today? any bands that you like? economically it's totally different than when you were -- >> i did a lecture in the uk about a -- inspired by a guy. i did the first one and i attacked apple. so i attacked apple. not because they are bad people but because they've changed the rules. in fact, you know, without apple software and without apple equipment, i couldn't do much. i have loved it. it's revolutionized my life. i think the difference between people who take money and amazon and apple and spotify and various organizations, what they don't do, what those evil record

companies used to do, which is give you money. they don't give you money. >> that's right. they just take it from you. they just take it and they are like bankers. they are like agents. they don't do anything for you. they put your music out there and itunes is the most fantastic piece of software. people are saying that the quality isn't good enough. it works for me. i'm half deaf anyway. the important thing is that the record companies couldn't give -- some of them were very corrupt and some are battling now to resist payments for electronic digital downloading. but i just wish -- i just wish apple would put maybe just 1% of this huge, huge, massive prove thats that they are making into nurturing artists that need a band, a get star, a laptop, something. what would it cost them to do that? you know, i do that stuff.

i help young musicians and why shouldn't they? the record companies were great. i think where we are now, we are in a place that there is a lot of music around which is so fabulous. but i'm just wondering, everybody has to do it on their own. you have to have a day job. >> so let's -- i want to go through some lights and some low lights of the who and let's start with -- we've got a lot of music fans here that watch this show. let's start with my generation. i mean, that's a big breakthrough moment and there's, of course, the legendary story of everybody packing when you went on the show which is the kids are all right documentary. at the end of the song keith almost blew himself up. talk about that song. talk about how it was a break through moment for you. >> it was talking blue. i had written this talking

blues. it was like a folks song. people try to put us down and they are talking about my general rea generation. one of our managers came to see us and said this could be great. i said, no, it's just a little folks song. and i beefed it up and beefed it up again and i realized that actually what it spoke of was what i mentioned earlier is this cusp between my music and my dad's music. it was generational. the music was reflecting a generational change in society, that there was a whole group of people from 1959 almost who felt disenfranchised and the music was about that -- that song was about that really and it was about -- when i sing, i hope i die before i get old. it doesn't mean i don't want to

be an old man. it means, i don't want to live the way you people live. i don't want to live with military might because the cost is too high. >> paul mccartney's favorite who song -- >> happy jack. >> who would have guessed that? and would you say you got that from eleanor -- >> yes, i loved eleanor rigby. of course, the arrangement was from george martin, his producer and written on a erent, b also they wrote out, you know, their arrangements and we didn't. we used tape machines, you know,

famous guitarists and that was our notation and now we use computers. the computer brings you to a place where if you are almost writing out again. >> when you did tommy, you were blasted by critics as being pretentious and self-involved and what was so ironic, i heard john lennon bitterly complain, nobody attacked pete townshend. but what they called pretentious was audacious. nobody had ever done anything like this before. did you know, as you were going through this, that you were bending rockets? >> i knew that we would get attacked. but it was last-ditch, really. the who -- we hadn't broken america. we had had a couple of hits here. we had done a couple tours but i knew that we weren't going to

break it. >> yeah. >> unless we did something really audacious. a audacious. courageous. the idea that you could -- it was the word opera and then we had these fantastic reviews. >> and your next album, when is the first time the who sort of stopped? for the first time you had somebody just an extraordinary masterpiece but you didn't like the title. you didn't like the album cover which i always thought was one of the great rock album covers. >> a bunch of guys pissing, excuse me, pissing. what's the symbolism?

>> all of the people thaw respected came to you and said, it's amazing. >> i had a much bigger idea. a much bigger idea. and i wanted to do this years before anyone even thought about it. i wanted to do a story about the coming of the incident. so they said, there will be this big grid all over the world and we'll be connected up and we'll share ideas and it will lead to difficulties, you know, problems and they will take it over and one day where roger said, it's a great idea but if we do do a movie we won't be able to get enough wire. >> before we go, we've got to talk about two friends of yours, two band plates that passed away, of course, keith moon -- i think it was '78, '79? >> '78.

>> who was just -- he was the epitome of a rock and roll drummer and then something i didn't realize until i read this book, john's influence. i didn't realize you guys were such close friends and i didn't realize how much you loved him, depended on him and how he sounded like a -- you see these rock stars and you read about them but he sounded like he was an incredible, solid friend. >> yeah, he was. you know, keith was but he was always trying to do a comedy routine. >> right. >> and he was always trying to come up with something that would make you laugh and i used to be happy to be his fall guy. but when he died, when keith died, the sad thing was that he was just getting well. he was just managing to stop drinking and stop using drug cocktails. he was never into big narcotics

but he would miss brandy and anything anybody would give him in a cup that one day happened to be elephant tranquilizers. he was mischief vows with himself and careless. >> jumping off of balconies? >> yes, one day i was following him down a holiday inn terrace and he suddenly jumped into the swimming pool and i thought, i'll do the same thing. i didn't realize, he had worked it out. he planned this. once he jumped out of a window. he once jumped out of a window of an apartment. he had a couple of friends waiting to go to a club with him. he jumped out of a window and when he looked out, he was lying in a dumpster which he had put in place filled with mattresses. so trying to give people heart attacks. but on the stage we would look here and there and we missed him

so terribly. >> if you read the book, you will understand why pete townshend has forever been banned from a holiday inn around the world. the book is "who i am." we thank you so much. >> thanks for having me. >> we shall return. halloween's here and we're at walmart with emily talking about the low price guarantee. that's your receipt from another store? yes sir! let's put it to the test! okay! if you find a lower advertised price, they'll match it right at the register. really? low price on reese's! low price on kit kat! low price on hershey! and the savings is sweeter than the candy. there you have it! you're kidding! that's the walmart low price guarantee! see for yourself! bring in your last receipt and see how much you can save. save more on the candy your family loves with hauntingly low prices

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welcome back to "morning joe." live picture from the white house. mike is here with another look at politico playbook. you have new information for us on tomorrow night's debate format in long island. what can we expect when we tune in at 9:00 eastern? >> the candidates are prepping differently since this is the town hall format. remember people are going to be answer questions. about 80 residents are being picked by the gallup. they are going to have a mix of

gender, races, ages. they are going to get to write questions on cards. every one of them will write their questions twice. they will keep one card. one will go to the moderator. they will screen them out and for the candidates, it's really tricky to think about both the audience member and the audience at home. the number one piece of advice, we're told, is obama in williams berg, virginia, is not to overcorrect, not to go too hard. he needs to show that he's tougher and push back more but he doesn't want to come across as a bully, especially interacting with these member of the audiences. for mid-romney, it's to engage with these questioners. he has a tendency to back away. he's being taught to talk about them one on one, almost pretend that there are 50 million

eavesdroppers. >> who selects the questions that will be asked? >> yeah. the gallup poll picks them and they pick them in nassau county there in long island and they do it like a are regular poll. they call regular phones and landline phones, cell phones, and they find a random sample of people with a variety of demographics. people are registered voters, people who say they plan to vote and people who say they might vote for either candidate and then from that there will be about 80, depending on the studio set, will be invited to come and can write questions and then the moderator from those will pick those questions, picking a variety of topics and also pick a mix of ages and gender of questioners. >> so it's the discretion of candy crowley and candy crowley alone at the end? >> that's right.

she'll be working with her team but it's totally up to her. the only guidelines is limit the tropics, variety and may any questions come from candy herself or is she just a conduit for the questions from the audience? >> that's a very interesting question. "time" and mark halperin are report reporting that both of the candidates are unpap unhappy that candy is much more, as you would say, a conduit, that she tees up the question and then the candidates take it from there. she was not a party to that agreement and she says that she's free to ask all questions and press the candidates a little bit. >> always an interesting lineup. thanks so much, mike. we're going to check out snl, the apple iphone focus group.

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tend to weigh less than those who don't. multigrain cheerios what are your complaints about the iphone 5? >> this is ridiculous. i feel like i'm holding three papers together with a staple, not a smartphone. >> that must be hard to deal with. >> it's a real struggle. whoever built these iphones, don't know what they were thinking. >> let's ask them. joining us is the three workers from china where they were manufactured. so mr. cho, josh here was complaining about apple maps. >> it wasn't really a complaint. >> oh, talk about apple map. it no work, right? it take you to a wrong place, you want starbucks and it take you to duncan donuts. so hard for you.

>> i guess we just lucky. we don't need map because we sleep where we work. >> oh, twitter so slow you can't read a kardashian tweet about handbag? >> "snl" the other night. we will be live in boca raton for the special coverage of the last presidential debate. we will be there monday and tuesday. come see us downtown at racks. it all gets going at 5:30 a.m. on monday. we'll be right back.

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they'll find some retirement people who are paid on salary, not commission. they'll get straightforward guidance and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. so let's talk about coverage. based on this chart, who would you choose ? wow. you guys take a minute. verizon, hands down. i'm going to show you guys another chart. pretty obvious. i don't think color matters. pretty obvious. what's pretty obvious about it ? that verizon has the coverage. verizon. verizon. we're going to go to another chart. it doesn't really matter how you present it. it doesn't matter how you present it. verizon. more 4g lte coverage than all other networks combined.

i'm bill karins. here's your business forecast. showers and thunderstorms for the mid-at ln particular region, like washington, d.v. and the middle of the country looks

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walmart. time to tell you what we learned today. >> we'll come back to you. >> most important thing we learned today, the birthday of one joe biello. >> hey. >> best in the business. he's a good man. and for your birthday, the yankees said they will score tomorrow. >> that's a news story. >> what did you learn, mike barnicle? >> that there's a sadness here. a great player, a great human being, and people from red sox nation regret the loss of the captain, derek jeter. >> i thought you